While 2010 starts with a lot of hopes that the world will come out of recession this year, the economists were always cautious enough to warn the governments not to remove the clutches from the economies. Removing the clutches will only make things worse. Thats what happened in 1930’s. While one way to put it is to understand the underlying factors that went down with the fall of the GDP and bring them back to strength as well. One of them is world trade. The world trade numbers in early 2009 were much worse.

The World Trade took a free fall. Picture : WTO website. It also states that the world trade took a big hit since the great depression of 1929. The export and imports %’s also fell down significantly. The reasons put forward by the WTO as they know it are as below.

1. Severe drop in domestic demand
2. Lack of trade credit
3. Much longer production chains / globalisation
4. Rise in protectionism

While the alarm triggered in early did have its impact 2009 , the short term analysis of the numbers say that the trade ( Export and Imports ) are bouncing back.

WTO WEBSITE : Export volume statistics

The chart above states that the there is 16% increase in the export volumes. I could not get a hold of the combined statistics like the one above. It does suggest an upward trend. Exports increase will mean an increase in imports as well. 🙂 Putting it back to Q2 2008 might be very tough. Governments across the world have a lot to do before they actually start considering that the recession is over.

OECD website has a different numbers for various countries, they call it leading composite factor.